Did mergers help Japanese mega-banks avoid failure? Analysis of the distance to default of banks

This paper applied the distance to default (DD) measure to five mergers among large Japanese banks during the crisis period. The DD helps us analyze whether mergers that took place in the late 1990s and 2000s made the merged banks financially more robust, as intended. Our findings include: (1) A merged bank fundamentally inherits financial soundness of premerged banks, without incremental value from the merger; and (2) A negative DD was observed following the merger. The findings of this case study are consistent with the view that large Japanese banks’ mergers either failed to implement intended scale economies or were motivated by a belief in the too-big-to-fail policy.     

U.S. current account debate with Japan then,with China now

This paper examines two U.S. current account deficit episodes, one in the 1980s and the other in the current 2000s, in which Japan and China, respectively, are the current account surplus countries that are criticized for contributing to the deficits. In both periods, U.S. policy makers pointed out the underdeveloped and closed financial markets of the current account surplus countries and advocated for these countries to fix the deficiencies, a position akin to the current “saving glut” argument. In both episodes, the current account surplus countries have criticized the United States for its low saving, especially public saving (the “Twin Deficit” argument). This paper presents empirical findings that are consistent with the Twin Deficit hypothesis; A one percentage point increase in the budget balance raises the current account balance by 0.10–0.49 percentage point for industrialized countries. The saving glut argument seems to be applicable only for countries with highly developed legal systems and open financial markets. While the United States has been experiencing a savings drought in both episodes, the Japanese current account surplus was driven by underinvestment in the 1980s and by over-saving during the 2000s. Furthermore, although the current Chinese current account surplus is driven by its over-saving, there is no evidence of excess domestic saving in the Asian emerging market countries; rather, they seem to have suffered from depressed investment in the wake of the 1997 financial crises.     

Offshore Outsourcing and Productivity: Evidence from Japanese Firm‐level Data Disaggregated by Tasks

This paper examines the relationship of offshoring with productivity, based on the original survey data of Japanese firms. Productivity gains were found in the firms offshoring both manufacturing and service tasks, but not in the firms offshoring only either manufacturing or service tasks. This paper also finds that firms offshoring to various destinations tend to be more productive than non‐offshoring firms. These results suggest that the level of firms' engagement in offshoring is more important for productivity than whether or not firms engage in offshoring.     

The Wage Rate and the Worker's Productivity: the Case of the Japanese Chemical Industry

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the wage rate and the productivity of the blue-collar worker in Japan. In this paper, micro data from a factory of chemical industry in Japan is used for our empirical study. Our empirical results indicate that, if the index of the labor productivity is an appropriate index of the labor productivity, the labor productivity plays a crucial role in the determination of the wage rate in a particular Japanese chemical factory of the 1960s.     

How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?

In this paper, we have constructed a theoretical model in which the Asian firm maximizes its profit, competing with the Japanese and the U.S. firms in their markets. The duopoly model is used to determine export prices and volumes in response to the exchange rate fluctuations vis-à-vis the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar. Then, the optimal basket weight that would minimize the fluctuation of the growth rate of trade balance was derived. These are the novel features of our model. The export price equation and export volume equation are estimated for several Asian countries for the sample period from 1981 to 1996. Results are generally reasonable. The optimal currency weights for the yen and the U.S. dollar are derived and compared with actual weights that had been adopted before the currency crisis of 1997. For all countries in the sample, it is shown that the optimal weight of the yen is significantly higher than the actual weight.J. Japan. Int. Econ.,Dec. 1998,12(4), pp. 256–304. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186, Japan; Department of Commerce, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186, Japan; Department of Commerce, Takachiho University, Suginami, Tokyo 168, Japan.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F31, F33, O11.     

A note on disequilibrium growth theory

Disequilibrium growth theory is an extension of disequilibrium theory to a neo-classical growth model. The real wage is not supposed to adjust instantaneously to ensure full employment. Behavior of capital accumulation may be different according to a regime of unemployment, full employment or overemployment.     

Incomplete insurance and absolute risk aversion

Suppose that a subset of states of nature are not verifiable individually. Given an optimal feasible insurance scheme, the expected utility across a group of unverifiable states is greater (less) than that of a verifiable state, if the degree of absolute risk aversion is decreasing (increasing).     

Determinants of the Profitability of Japanese Manufacturing Affiliates in China and Other Regions: Does Localisation of Procurement,Sales and Management Matter?

Does localisation of procurements, sales and management contribute to the profitability of overseas affiliates? This study examines this question by analysing the performance of Japanese multinationals’ manufacturing affiliates in China using an affiliate‐level dataset for the period from 1989 to 2002 collected by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. We find that even though foreign multinationals often seem to enter China for the local market potential, affiliates with a higher local sales ratio tend to be less profitable – a pattern that is conspicuously different from that observed for Japanese affiliates in other regions such as the USA or the ASEAN4, where local sales orientation has a positive impact on profitability. On the other hand, we find that Japanese affiliates’ profitability was positively associated with their local procurement ratio. Using the coefficients of the profit function estimated from data on all Japanese manufacturing affiliates around the world, we calculate the effect of local sales and procurements on profitability by country, controlling for the level of GDP and per capita GDP. In the case of China, the localisation effects are positive following the country’s accession to the WTO, suggesting that both local procurement and sales expansion contribute to higher profitability in China.     

International stock market efficiency: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach

This article develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyse the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970, 1991). Our empirical results provide a new perspective that the international linkages and market efficiency change over time and that their behaviours correspond well to historical events of the international financial system.